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Will Steffen - Our world: transform or collapse?
Will steffen talks in Ericsson 2020 Shaping Ideas about a critical point in history. The next ten years will decide if our society can transform into a sustainable one, or if it will follow the way of the Roman and Mayan civilizations, and simply collapse.
Extract from Will Steffen on Our world: transform or collapse?
Will Steffen: Will Steffen
Will Steffen: If you look back on human history and see how human societies have developed it's not a nice even curve of progress, progress, progress. It's a case of where society has developed. They hit a constraint, they hit some limits. Some of them collapse, some of them transform. But they have to change. So it's not an even history of things ever getting better. Of people always becoming wealthier the next year or always better off. Or always new things like bigger TV screens. Will Steffen doesn't think history works like that. We come to critical points in history where we transform. We do things differently. Or in deed, we collapse and there's good examples of that like the Mayans, the Romans and so on who collapsed. And things sprang up in their place. So I think we need to think of that as we go forward, will we be one of those societies that simply collapse? Which is a fairly painful way of learning how to do something new. Or will we think ahead and transform ourselves voluntarily? In a different type of society that can be sustained for the future. In the past, humans have indeed created environmental problems for themselves. But the scale has been different in the past. Humans have created problems at local scale. We now that in the past they may have overfished a lake or a river that they depended on. They may have chopped down a forest. And in the past when numbers were much smaller, we could move, and we did. We moved to a different place and set up shop and started working there and living there and so on. But now we're facing a problem that's quite different in scale. We're now effecting the entire planet. Bad as those earlier problems were, local pollution problems or local destruction of ecosystems. That didn't effect how the earth as a whole worked. Will Steffen says; we could move on, confident that the entire planet was still okay. And we had a home we could live on. Now we're actually changing the operation of the entire planet. And this is quite a different type of problem. Because it means we don't have a second chance. It means we can't move to somewhere else. Technology is critically important in the near future for reducing our impact.We have to have ways of generating electricity, moving ourselves, fishing, growing food. To the much less damage into the environment. We know how to do this in many cases. The critical part of technology too, are the institutions and economic instruments that we need to take up technology, transfer technology and so on. So this bundle of activities, of technologies themselves, the institutions and the economic instruments are critical to reduce impact over the next few decades. But by 2020 Will Steffen thinks that we will see a society that we may not be able to recognize from what we see today. Certainly we can see threads of that. We can see new energy systems, new transport systems, new ways of working and living. But I think as people go forward towards that, with the cleverness and innovation that humans have shown in the past, there will be solutions to problems that we can't imagine, even today. So I would say although we will see some threads of the future, we certainly can't foresee the whole future. And I would see an exciting time in 2020 in a world that we can't quite fathom today. But I think it will be on a positive direction and we'll be going a long way towards solving many of the problems we see today.
Will Steffen: Will Steffen