It seems like a perfect match for the on-the-go lifestyles of 20- and 30-somethings, but the marriage of mobile telephony with online dating has to overcome several hurdles to realize the projected success of other social networking and user-generated content services.

Windsor Holden, principal analyst at Juniper Research, authored a recent study that forecasts the number of users of such services will rise from just over 40 million in 2007 to 260 million in 2012, driven by strong demand in both developed and emerging markets. Revenues from mobile dating and chat services are expected to exceed USD 1 billion by 2010.

With 3G-enabled video chat and 24/7 access, mobile phones offer a potentially strong medium for dating services. Holden says mass market uptake will require that mobile dating services address security, price, marketing, ease of use and convergence.

User interface is a key challenge, Holden says. “You have to make sure these services are compatible with their fixed counterparts,” he says.

“It’s a case of enabling the functionalities you’re used to in the fixed environment: the ability to search databases and match up with people out there. We’re past that tipping point whereby people are subscribing more to converged services and to mobile-only services.”

Established online dating services like Match.com and Webdate have recognized that subscribers are willing to pay a small premium to get access on their mobile devices. Some, like UK-based 3G Dating Agency, charge only for messages. Others, such as Flirtomatic, offer free subscriptions but generate revenue by selling add-ons like virtual bouquets of flowers and cards, or for accessing certain privileges.

While he says Flirtomatic reports significant revenues, Holden predicts dating services will find success operating on a combination of business models.

“You charge a very small price point for membership, consider small retail price points for add-ons, and have backing this up the ad-supported model, which then serves as a secondary revenue stream,” he says. “Clearly advertising is going to be very important both in dating as well as in the social networking space and user-generated content.”

He also recommends better marketing for mobile services. “A lot of mobile dating services aren’t marketed well enough,” Holden says.

Mobile dating has “really taken off” on the Indian subcontinent, Holden observes, and it is likely to grow in popularity in other places lacking fixed broadband infrastructure, such as Latin America. “It’s only a matter of time before other emerging markets, subject to the various religious and cultural mores of those countries, will see mobile dating taking off quite significantly.”

Holden predicts mobile dating will grow in North America and Western Europe as younger adults become more accustomed to surfing with the mobile internet.

Services like instant alerts when new subscribers join, moderated video chat, and security and privacy will set the best sites apart, Holden says.

Security remains a significant hurdle to uptake, and services employ a variety of vetting methods ranging in nature from passive to surprisingly intensive.

3G Dating Agency, for example, validates subscribers’ identities by conducting video call interviews with each applicant, then corroborating their names and addresses with public records.

Such vigorous processes might not be commercially viable for a mass market, Holden says. “But I think you have to have some kind of moderation to verify the people who are out there. You can always put out some riders to warn users, but I’m not sure.

“There are some vulnerable people out there, and there are some dangerous people out there. And we need to ensure that the two don’t meet.”


David Callahan