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Glimpse the future of telecoms

Ian Pearson is employed as a futurologist for British operator BT, and he says 85 percent of his predictions are proved right.

November 30, 2006

Ian Pearson

Pearson says people will be demanding faster bandwidth, both at home and through mobile broadband. Value-added services will replace voice calls as the main source of operator income, he says.

"Voice calls are already down to a third of many operators' revenues, and in the future, voice-call revenue will be virtually zero," Pearson says. "It will be increasingly important for operators to charge for other services - it still costs money to run the networks."

Pearson believes value-added services will be in demand, improving people's lives in many ways. He foresees that, among other things, this could entail subscribers using their PDAs to turn a voice call into text, which adds value to the voice call.

He also gives examples of positioning and privacy features - using context and knowledge of who and where you are - allowing calls to be handled differently.

Pearson says convergence between fixed and mobile networks will continue.  This will require more bandwidth in mobile phones because subscribers will want wireless, LAN-type bandwidth.

"I think that somewhere between 2008 and 2012, 60 percent of all internet surfing will be done over the mobile phone. By then we will also have one address for e-mail, fixed and mobile telephony," he says.

Multimedia use is on the rise, requiring the integration of different types of technologies, so Pearson foresees a single platform, or device, to handle all people's communication needs. This single platform, probably IP-based, will therefore be a telephone, a PC, and a TV all at the same time. People should be able to switch between the different media as part of their calls.

Pearson also talks about a new industry called "dual worlds," mixing computer technology - such as virtual interactions found in video games today - overlaid onto the real world. An example is physical architecture - a building where you can change its "appearance" to a headset-stored digital image of your choice.

He further forecasts that this duality could be used on people as well. "You might be able to decide your own looks - what clothes and makeup to wear. You will get a cyber appearance," he says.

While these forecasts may sound like science fiction, Pearson feels there are significant markets for all these opportunities.

"I see this could be a major differentiator between different social groups or age groups. If 70 percent of all 20-30-year-olds are interested in a service, but nobody else, that is still a market big enough to make a difference - and to make it worthwhile for the market players."

Ian Pearson
Pearson has been BT's Futurologist for 15 years, keeping track of developments across the whole field of technology and informing BT on emerging opportunities and threats.

He now concentrates on mapping the progress of new developments throughout information technology, considering both technological and social implications.

He is sought after internationally as a conference speaker, has received many awards for his papers, written several books and has made hundreds of TV and radio appearances.