1. 2006 /

News Archive

Predicting the future of broadband

The broadband market is evolving rapidly, and the world as we know it may not look the same in five or 10 years. Someone who has an overview of the situation is analyst Erik Keith, broadband specialist at Current Analysis.

December 28, 2006

What is the driving force behind broadband development?

Competition between operators is one of the most common factors. For example, in North America, the competition between cable operators and telecom companies - such as Comcast, Cox and Cablevision verses Verizon fiber to the premises (FTTP) - for consumer triple-play services is the most prominent, high-level battle. In Europe, the competition for broadband/triple-play end users is being waged on a country-by-country basis. In France, Iliad, Neuf Cegetel and Free are competing effectively with France Telecom, while throughout the rest of Europe, competitive operators, cable operators, and public utilities - especially those deploying fiber to the home (FTTH) networks - are winning customers at the expense of incumbent telecom operators.

 

End-user demand for digital content, which requires dramatically higher bandwidth-per-connection, will also drive broadband development. Multi-stream broadcast TV, VoD and gaming, and especially high-definition versions of these video applications, will also drive the "need for speed" to each household.

What service is the most popular today – and what will be popular in five years’ time?

At present, broadband is used primarily for internet access and web surfing, but internet access has evolved substantially from the early days of the internet - when end users' activities consisted primarily of reading and viewing fixed-text web pages with low-resolution still pictures - to downloading multiple high-resolution digital photos (for virtual photo albums, for example) and streaming audio and video almost continuously. It's hard to pin down what the most popular service will be in five years, but it will almost certainly be video-related. On the business side, high-definition teleconferencing looks to be the most popular application, while multi-stream high-definition video/gaming content delivery may be number one in the consumer sector.

What role do you think broadband will play in the lives of ordinary families in the future?

In five years, virtually every family in, for example, Sweden and the US, will have some form of broadband access at home, to the point where broadband is an integral part of everyday life. Already, web-based applications are enabling end users to shop for and purchase almost any product from the comfort of their own home. As we move forward, applications that enable the remote control of home electronics and home-based appliances will facilitate even more "lifestyle efficiencies." For example, home security systems with video feeds will provide extra peace of mind when away from home.

 

Read how Ericsson's acquisition of Redback Networks will give operators a broadband business advantage.

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