5G is expected to reach more than 40 percent global population coverage and 1.5 billion subscriptions for enhanced mobile broadband by the end of 2024. This will make 5G the fastest generation of cellular technology to be rolled out on a global scale, according to the latest edition of the Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) Mobility Report.
Key drivers for 5G deployment include increased network capacity, lower cost per gigabyte and new use case requirements.
North America and North East Asia are expected to lead the 5G uptake. In North America, 5G subscriptions are forecast to account for 55 percent of mobile subscriptions by the end of 2024. In North East Asia, the corresponding forecast figure is more than 43 percent.
In Western Europe, 5G is forecast to account for some 30 percent of mobile subscriptions in the region by end of 2024.
The uptake of NB-IoT and Cat-M1 technologies is driving growth in the number of cellular IoT connections worldwide. Of the 4.1 billion cellular IoT connections forecast for 2024, North East Asia is expected to account for 2.7 billion – a figure reflecting both the ambition and size of the cellular IoT market in this region.
Diverse and evolving requirements across a wide range of use cases are prompting service providers to deploy both NB-IoT and Cat-M1 in their markets.
Mobile data traffic grew 79 percent between Q3 2017 and Q3 2018 – China a key engine
Mobile data traffic in Q3 2018 grew close to 79 percent year-on-year, which is the highest rate since 2013. Increased data-traffic-per-smartphone in North East Asia– mainly in China – has pushed the global figure notably higher. With a traffic growth per smartphone of around 140 percent between end 2017 and end 2018, the region has the second highest data traffic per smartphone at 7.3 gigabytes per month. This is comparable to streaming HD video for around 10 hours per month.
North America still has the highest data traffic per smartphone, set to reach 8.6 gigabytes per month by the end of this year – which can be compared to streaming HD video for over 12 hours monthly.
Between 2018-2024, total mobile data traffic is expected to increase by a factor of five, with 5G networks projected to carry 25 percent of mobile traffic by the end of the period.
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Business Area Networks, says: “As 5G now hits the market, its coverage build-out and uptake in subscriptions are projected to be faster than for previous generations. At the same time, cellular IoT continues to grow strongly. What we are seeing is the start of fundamental changes that will impact not just the consumer market but many industries.”
A look at the India Market – Mobile data traffic in India to quadruple by 2024
The total mobile data traffic per month in India is expected to grow 4 times during the forecast period from 3 EB in 2018 to 12 EB by 2024. The total smartphone subscriptions in the country will reach 1 billion by 2024 growing at 10% CAGR, whereas the total mobile subscriptions in India are expected to grow at CAGR of 3% from about 1.2 billion in 2018 to 1.42 billion in 2024.
Nitin Bansal, Head of Ericsson India and Head of Network Solutions, South East Asia, Oceania and India says, “LTE roll outs in India will continue and it is expected to be the most dominant access technology by 2024 accounting for nearly 81% of all mobile subscriptions in India compared to 30% in 2018.”
Video will continue to drive data usage and we see monthly data usage per smartphone increasing from 6.8 GB in 2018 to 15 GB by 2024 growing at 14% CAGR.
India also saw the second highest number of net mobile subscription additions by a country in Q3, 2018, with the addition of 31 million mobile subscriptions. Globally, the third quarter of 2018 saw an addition of 120 million new subscriptions, with China adding 37 million and Indonesia adding 13 million new subscriptions.
The Mobility report also features articles on fixed wireless access and how to make it a reality, streaming video from megabits to gigabytes, and developing the smart wireless manufacturing market.
NOTES TO EDITORS
Don’t forget to check out our cool tools: the Ericsson Mobility Visualizer to explore actual and forecast data from the Mobility Report and the Ericsson Mobility Calculator, to discover the relationship between the use of various app types and monthly traffic subscription.
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