Mobile data traffic outlook

Total global mobile data traffic – excluding traffic generated by Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) – is expected to reach around 90 EB per month by the end of 2022 and is projected to grow by a factor of nearly 4 to reach 325 EB per month in 2028. Including FWA, this takes total mobile network traffic to around 115 EB per month by the end of 2022, and to 453 EB per month by the end of 2028. The predicted traffic growth up to 2028 includes an assumption that an initial uptake of XR-type services, including AR, VR and mixed reality (MR), will happen in the latter part of the forecast period. However, if adoption is stronger than expected, data traffic could increase significantly more than currently anticipated toward the end of the forecast period, particularly in the uplink – see page 19 for more information. Currently, video traffic is estimated to account for around 70 percent of all mobile data traffic, a share that is forecast to increase to 80 percent in 2028.

Populous markets that launch 5G early are likely to lead in terms of traffic growth over the forecast period. 5G’s share of mobile data traffic is expected to be around 17 percent by the end of 2022, an increase from 10 percent at the end of 2021. This share is forecast to grow to 69 percent in 2028. By then all growth in mobile data traffic will come from 5G.

Traffic growth varying across regions

Traffic growth can be highly volatile between years and can vary significantly between countries, depending on local market dynamics. Globally, the growth in mobile data traffic per smartphone can be attributed to three main drivers: improved device capabilities, an increase in data-intensive content and growth in data consumption due to continued improvements in the performance of deployed networks.

These differences are reflected, for example, in the difference between the Sub-Saharan Africa region, where the average monthly mobile data usage per smartphone is estimated to be 4.6 GB, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries which will have 25 GB per smartphone by the end of 2022. The global monthly average usage per smartphone is anticipated to be 19 GB in 2023 and is forecast to reach 46 GB by the end of 2028.

New services expected to drive data growth in North America

In North America, the average monthly mobile data usage per smartphone is expected to reach 55 GB in 2028. The unlimited data plans and improved 5G network coverage and capacity increasingly attract new 5G subscribers. The data traffic generated per minute of use will increase significantly in line with the expected uptake of gaming, XR, and video-based apps. These experiences require higher video resolutions, increased uplink traffic, and more data from devices off-loaded to cloud computing resources to satisfy users. In 2028, we predict that 5G subscription penetration in North America will be the highest of all regions, exceeding 90 percent.

In Western Europe, service usage and traffic growth are expected to follow a similar pattern to that anticipated for North America. Although the more fragmented market situation has led to later mass-market adoption of 5G, by 2028, traffic usage per smartphone is projected to reach 52 GB per month – close to the usage in North America at that time.

The North East Asia region’s share of total global mobile data traffic is expected to be around 30 percent in 2028. In the region, 5G subscribers currently use, on average, 2–3 times more data than 4G subscribers. As more 4G subscribers migrate to 5G, average mobile data traffic per smartphone will increase and reach 55 GB per month in 2028. Video is the dominant traffic type. For example, in South Korea, video traffic share increased from 55 percent in 2019 to 60 percent in 2022, and traffic volume increased by 2.75 times. Service providers expect additional traffic growth with the introduction of new video services, for example high-definition video and XR services.

In the Middle East and North Africa region, data traffic growth will continue as more subscribers are transitioned to 4G, and 5G coverage expands in the period leading to 2028 with average data traffic per smartphone rising by 24 percent annually.

In the GCC countries, despite modest growth in subscriber and smartphone connections, monthly data traffic per smartphone will almost double to around 53 GB between 2022 and 2028. Emergent use cases for 5G will also yield traffic growth from industries as service providers explore various monetization avenues.

Data traffic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will be driven by a combination of a higher number of connections, greater coverage by mobile broadband-capable networks, device affordability and attractive service offerings. Service providers in many parts of the continent are in the process of migrating customers from legacy 2G/3G networks to 4G networks, which will result in average monthly data traffic per smartphone expected to be 18 GB by 2028. Despite it only constituting a small share of the total subscriber base, 5G subscriptions reaching 150 million in 2028 will contribute to data traffic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.

In India, Nepal and Bhutan, mobile networks continue to play a pivotal role in driving social and economic inclusion. 5G will play a crucial role in achieving India’s digital inclusion goals especially for bringing broadband to rural and remote homes. In fact, enhanced mobile broadband is serving as the foundation for the Government’s “Digital India” vision by enabling people to access public services.

The average data traffic per smartphone in the India region – together with GCC – is the highest globally. It is projected to grow from 25 GB per month in 2022 to around 54 GB per month in 2028 – a CAGR of 14 percent. Total mobile data traffic in the India region is estimated to grow from 18 EB per month in 2022 to 53 EB per month in 2028, growing at a CAGR of 19 percent. This is driven by high growth in the number of smartphone users and the increase in average usage per smartphone.

The smartphone subscriptions in India as a percentage of total mobile subscriptions are expected to grow from 77 percent in 2022 to 94 percent in 2028.

Mobile data traffic per smartphone continues to grow strongly in South East Asia and Oceania and is expected to reach around 54 GB per month in 2028 – a CAGR of 28 percent making it the region with the highest growth.

Latin America is expected to follow a similar trend to South East Asia and Oceania over the forecast period, while individual countries show very different growth rates for data traffic per smartphone. Traffic growth is driven by coverage build-out and continued strong adoption of 4G (and eventually 5G), linked to a rise in smartphone subscriptions and an increase in average data usage per smartphone. The average data traffic per smartphone is expected to reach 41 GB per month in 2028.

In Central and Eastern Europe, growth is fueled by the migration of 2G and 3G subscribers to 4G, up to 2024, which is when 5G is expected to overtake previous generations as the technology contributing the most subscriptions. Over the forecast period, monthly average data traffic per smartphone is expected to increase from 13 GB to around 35 GB per month.

It is important to bear in mind that there are significant variations in monthly data consumption within all regions, with some individual countries and service providers having considerably higher monthly consumption than any regional averages.

1. All Middle East and North Africa figures include GCC countries.