5G device outlook

5G adoption continues

• Smartphone shipments show the first signs of recovery following weak sales in the beginning of 2023, as the decline narrowed to only 1 percent in the third quarter.¹
• Over 1,000 5G smartphone models have launched in total, with more than 240 so far in 2023.
• 5G’s share of shipped smartphones continues to grow and is expected to account for 62 percent in 2023, compared to 57 percent in 2022.²
• Foldable device shipments grew by 16 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2023. There are now 10 vendors with foldable smartphone models, and 17 different models launched so far in 2023.
• 5G device market shares could be redistributed in China, as signs of competitive domestic chipset production technology surfaced in the third quarter.
• The move towards XR continues with market movers entering the domain.
• 3GPP-based non-terrestrial network (NTN) technology is expected to achieve the economy of scale needed to drive global adoption of satellite services in cellular devices. This is expected to start with text messaging and low-data-rate services, based on fully integrated system-on-chip (SoC) solutions expected in 2024.

5G SA strengthens its position

5G standalone (SA) is becoming well established. This enables new capabilities such as 5G native voice (Voice over New Radio, or VoNR) and new services like network slicing and user equipment route selection policy (URSP).

• Devices with four-component carrier (4CC) downlink carrier aggregation and uplink carrier aggregation are entering the market, which allows single-user performance on par with or better than non-standalone (NSA) in most markets.
• Smartphone operating systems have introduced support for URSP, targeting both enterprise and consumer use cases. This is expected to boost 5G monetization possibilities.
• SA maturity is an enabler for private networks, either using sub-6 or mmWave spectrum. Since private spectrum is usually limited to a single carrier, NSA is not an option. Recent advances in the device ecosystem have enabled smartphones and tablets as data-only devices.
• New Radio (NR) reduced capability (RedCap) is ready for commercialization. This will enable low-cost devices in 5G SA and open the private networks space for sensors and other IoT devices based on NR (see our RedCap overview for more information, page 19).

1 Source: Canalys.

2 Source: IDC.