Mobile subscriptions outlook

5G subscription uptake continues apace and the total reached 2.9 billion at the end of 2025, accounting for one-third of all mobile subscriptions. The highest 5G subscription penetration at the end of 2025 was in North America with 79 percent, followed by North East Asia at 61 percent and Western Europe and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, both at 55 percent. Globally, 5G is anticipated to overtake 4G as the dominant mobile access technology by subscription by the end of 2027, nine years after launch.

Around 370 service providers have now launched commercial 5G services, and more than 90 of those have launched or soft-launched 5G standalone (SA).^[1]

As subscribers migrate to 5G, the number of 4G subscriptions continues to decline. During the fourth quarter, 4G subscriptions declined by 64 million, bringing the total to 4.7 billion. 3G subscriptions declined by 23 million during the same period, while 2G subscriptions dropped by 32 million.

2G and 3G network sunsetting continues around the world. The phasing out of 3G networks is anticipated to happen more quickly than that of 2G in the coming years, but the timeline for this transition varies based on country and service provider.

Two-thirds of all mobile subscriptions expected to be 5G at the end of 2031

Global 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 6.4 billion in 2031 and will make up two-thirds of all mobile subscriptions. Deployment of 5G SA by leading service providers will continue, and 5G SA subscriptions are projected to account for more than 4.1 billion in 2031, making up around 65 percent of all 5G subscriptions at that time.

In 2031, it is projected that Western Europe, North America and the GCC countries will have 5G subscription penetration of above 90 percent.

6G, AI and cloud will redefine service possibilities

Standardization discussions for 6G (3GPP Release 21, based on ITU IMT-2030) have begun. 6G is expected to have only a standalone architecture with a core network built on the architectural principles of 5G SA, extended with new capabilities such as AI and integrated sensing and communication (ISAC). A new Radio Access Network (RAN) architecture will be defined, including a new radio interface. For traditional use cases like enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) and the Internet of Things (IoT), 6G will advance the performance, service differentiation and guarantees. As these network technologies open up new service possibilities, use cases like massive digital twinning, autonomous mobility and wide-area mixed reality are likely to gain broader commercial adoption.

Global 6G subscriptions^[2] are forecast to reach 180 million by the end of 2031, not including early uptake of AI-enabled IoT devices such as autonomous vehicles, smart glasses and drones. If 6G subscription uptake happens earlier, the current forecast could be surpassed significantly. The timing of commercial launch will vary between regions and countries:

• In the US, China, Japan, the GCC countries and South Korea, the launch of commercial 5G services took place relatively early compared to many other countries, and it is expected that these countries will be among the first to roll out 6G commercial services.
• India has been vocal in its ambition to lead in 6G technology, and it is expected that the timing of the commercial 6G launch compared to other countries will happen earlier than it did for 5G.
• In Europe, the launch of commercial 6G services is anticipated to be about one year later, relative to other countries, than was the case for 5G, due to the later roll out of 5G SA.