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Ericsson Mobility Report November 2024

5G subscriptions to overtake 4G in 2027

Mobile subscriptions outlook

5G to become dominant subscription type in 2027

Key findings

During the third quarter of 2024, 163 million 5G subscriptions were added to reach a total of 2.1 billion.

Service providers continue to deploy 5G, with around 320 having launched commercial networks so far.

5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 6.3 billion by the end of 2030.

5G subscription uptake continues to be strong. 5G is now expected to become the dominant mobile access technology by subscription in 2027. This exceeds earlier predictions that it would overtake 4G in 2028, driven partly by growth in China and India. Global 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 6.3 billion and make up 67 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 2030. At the same time, 5G standalone (SA) subscriptions are projected to account for around 3.6 billion out of these 6.3 billion. It is projected that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will have the highest 5G penetration in 2030 at 93 percent, followed closely by Western Europe at 92 percent and North America at 91 percent.

One-quarter of all mobile subscriptions expected to be 5G at the end of 2024

At the end of 2024, North America is set to have the highest 5G subscription penetration globally at 71 percent, followed by North East Asia at 51 percent, the GCC countries at 47 percent and Western Europe at 41 percent.

5G subscriptions increased by 163 million during the third quarter to total 2.1 billion. Looking toward the end of the year, 5G subscriptions are expected to reach close to 2.3 billion, accounting for more than 25 percent of all mobile subscriptions. 4G subscriptions continue to decline as subscribers migrate to 5G.
 
During the third quarter, the number of 4G subscriptions fell by 69 million, to total just below 5.1 billion. 3G subscriptions declined by 31 million during the quarter, while 2G subscriptions dropped by 34 million.

2G and 3G network sunsetting continues around the world. The timeline for this transition varies based on the country and service provider, but the phase-out of 3G networks on a global level is anticipated to happen more quickly than for 2G in the coming years. 

Around 320 service providers have now launched commercial 5G services, and more than 60 have deployed or launched 5G SA.[1]

Figure 1: Mobile subscriptions by technology

6.3bn

5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 6.3 billion by the end of 2030.

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References

1
GSA and Ericsson (November 2024)