Mobile data traffic outlook
Mobile data traffic growth continues, despite uncertainties in the forecast
Key findings
5G’s share of mobile data traffic is forecast to grow to 75 percent in 2029.
Mobile data traffic is forecast to grow with a CAGR of around 20 percent through 2029.
Globally, total mobile network data traffic will grow to an estimated 466 EB per month by the end of 2029.
As described in our quarterly forecast, the figures for mobile network data traffic have been adjusted down compared to the previous report, mainly due to lower numbers reported by regulators and service providers in populous markets for the second half of 2023.
However, the predicted mobile data traffic yearly growth rate between 2023 and 2029 remains similar, although from a lower starting point. Total global mobile data traffic – excluding traffic generated by Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) – is expected to grow by a factor of around 3 and reach 313 EB per month in 2029. When FWA is included, total mobile network traffic is anticipated to grow by a factor of around 3.5, rising to 466 EB per month by the end of the forecast period.
5G’s share of mobile data traffic was 25 percent at the end of 2023, an increase from 17 percent at the end of 2022. This share is forecast to grow to around 75 percent in 2029.
Figure 6: Global mobile network data traffic
Challenges in the forecast
Mobile data traffic is forecast to grow with a CAGR of around 20 percent through 2029. Yearly mobile data traffic growth rates are expected to slow at different paces in different regions up to 2029. The yearly net added data traffic volume is expected to increase up to 2027, whereafter it will be somewhat stable. With similar mobile data traffic growth rates but from a lower staring point, the predicted absolute numbers for 2029 are lower than previously reported.
There are several factors impacting the forecast numbers. To highlight the challenges, Figures 8 and 9 additionally depict high- and low-growth scenarios for the total mobile data traffic (EB per month) and the mobile data traffic per active smartphone (GB per month).
Mobile data traffic growth between years can be highly volatile and vary significantly between regions, markets and service providers, depending on local market dynamics. Some factors that could impact whether the forecast for 2029 follows the higher or lower scenario for mobile data traffic could include:
- global macroeconomic changes (inflation and interest rates)
- subscriber migration to later generations in India, Latin America, South East Asia and Africa
- smartphone shipment development
- uptake of new consumer applications (such as XR), new advanced devices and AI-enabled tools
- split between FWA and mobile data traffic changes as FWA connections grow
- continued improvements in the performance of deployed networks
As seen in the last couple of years, the macroeconomic situation can change significantly with global inflation, interest rates and other factors. This can have a big impact on consumer willingness to pay for mobile services, thereby affecting mobile data usage.
Several large regions such as India, Latin America, South East Asia and Africa are expected to significantly migrate the subscriber base to later generations of mobile technologies in the coming years. The future traffic patterns of these users will depend on network capabilities, tariff plans and available services.
Figure 7: Mobile data traffic per active smartphone
| Regions | 2023 | 2029 | CAGR 2023-2029 |
|---|---|---|---|
| India, Nepal, Bhutan | 29 | 68 | 15% |
| North America | 19 | 59 | 21% |
| GCC | 28 | 58 | 13% |
| Western Europe | 19 | 49 | 17% |
| Middle East & North Africa* | 14 | 43 | 20% |
| Central and Eastern Europe | 17 | 43 | 17% |
| South East Asia & Oceania | 17 | 42 | 16% |
| Global average | 17 | 42 | 16% |
| North East Asia | 19 | 41 | 14% |
| Latin America | 11 | 36 | 22% |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 5 | 20 | 26% |
*Note: All Middle East and North Africa figures include GCC countries.
Predicted traffic growth up to 2029 includes an assumption that an initial uptake of XR-type services, including AR, VR and mixed reality (MR), will happen in the latter part of the forecast period. However, if adoption is accelerated, data traffic could significantly surpass our current traffic outlook at the end of the forecast period.
With continued strong FWA uptake in parts of the world where fixed broadband connections have been limited, it is likely that household-based traffic will move from smartphones to FWA – especially for streaming services. This could then impact the GB per smartphone numbers in those regions.
Globally, the growth in mobile data traffic per smartphone can be attributed to three main drivers: improved device capabilities, an increase in data-intensive content, and growth in data consumption due to continued improvements in the performance of deployed networks.
It is important to keep in mind that there are significant variations in monthly data consumption within all regions, with some individual countries and service providers having considerably higher consumption than the regional averages.
