Mobile data traffic outlook

Both global mobile data traffic and total mobile network data traffic, which includes FWA, grew slightly above expectations during 2025, ending the year at 146 EB per month and 203 EB per month respectively. Looking ahead, the projected growth rate for mobile data traffic during the forecast period remains consistent with the estimate from six months ago, with a growth factor of around 2.2 to reach 328 EB per month in 2031. Including FWA, total mobile network data traffic is anticipated to grow by a factor of around 2.5 during the period, slightly higher than the estimate six months ago, reaching 515 EB per month. Notably, 2025 marked the highest yearly net addition of mobile network data traffic so far.

During 2025, the share of mobile data traffic carried over 5G increased from 34 percent to 48 percent and is projected to reach 85 percent in 2031. Total mobile network data traffic is expected to grow at 14 percent year-on-year in 2031, with a CAGR of 17 percent over the full forecast period. Mobile data traffic generated by 6G subscriptions is anticipated to represent a small share of the total in 2031.

Multiple factors impact traffic growth

Mobile data traffic growth can be highly volatile and vary significantly between years, regions, markets and service providers, depending on local market dynamics. Factors that impact traffic growth include:

• New use cases and devices: Adoption of AR-enabled devices and scalable, multimodal generative AI (GenAI) applications will be key. Current forecasts assume initial XR uptake (AR, VR, MR) toward the end of the forecast period. Faster adoption could drive traffic significantly beyond current projections.
• Service and tariff evolution: Changes in available plans and pricing structures.
• Content data intensity: Growth in data-demanding services and applications.
• Network improvements: Continued performance gains in deployed infrastructure.
• Technology migration: The pace at which subscribers in populous markets like India, Latin America, South East Asia, and Africa adopt newer mobile generations.
• Split between FWA and mobile data traffic: As FWA connections expand in regions lacking fixed broadband, household traffic may shift from smartphones to FWA – especially for streaming services.
• Device distribution: Smartphone shipment volumes in different regions.

There are significant variations in monthly data consumption within all regions, with some individual countries and service providers having considerably higher or lower consumption than the regional averages.

Both Western Europe and the Middle East and North Africa regions are projected to have the strongest growth in monthly mobile data traffic per active smartphone during the forecast period, with a 15 percent CAGR, despite the already high consumption levels in Western Europe. The India region – including Nepal and Bhutan – continues to have the highest average monthly consumption of mobile data traffic per active smartphone, reaching 37 GB at the end of 2025, and is expected to reach 70 GB in 2031. By comparison, the global monthly average was 22 GB at the end of last year and is anticipated to reach 42 GB in 2031, representing a CAGR of 12 percent.

As traffic demand varies across regions and over time, it is important to keep in mind that average monthly data traffic growth in a region cannot be used to estimate daily peak traffic growth in a local area, or to support network evolution strategies there. Traffic growth is not uniform across locations within a service provider’s network. For example, in dense urban locations, traffic demands can be up to 1,000 times larger relative to rural areas.^[3]