Climate negotiations - what is a COP and what´s happened during the last years?
For nearly thirty years, the United Nation’s annual climate change conference has brought together government representatives, leaders and citizens aiming to mitigate climate change. It´s called Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
In 2015, world leaders met in Paris and made history when the Paris Agreement was adopted by 196 parties on December 12, 2015, and came into force on November 4, 2016. The Paris Agreement is the first time all nations are bound into a common cause to combat global warming, unfortunately they also must adapt it in their national policies.
Within the agreement there is a goal to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees preferably 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. But already today, we have seen a rise in mean global temperatures above 1.3 degrees according to the latest science.
Since then, many COPs have been held, together with other meetings during the year in between the COPs. You might have heard about the COP26 in Glasgow, where we did a blog piece.
Last year during COP28 in Dubai the negotiations managed to agree to triple renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 and agree to accelerate the reduction of non-CO2 gases. They also set a global target to halt deforestation by 2030, including mobilization of support to enable its achievement. Maybe the largest achievement was the unprecedented reference to transitioning away from all fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner. This has never been done before and even though the end date was not set to when this will happen, the reference was direly needed. Outside of the negotiations, a lot of focus was on trying to get attention to end fossil fuel subsidies .
The final major decision taken last year at the COP28 in Dubai was to operationalize and capitalize funding for Loss and Damage, supporting those on the front lines of the climate crisis (with $792 million already pledged to that date).
COP29: what was the outcome?
Almost 10 years after the Paris Agreement was ratified at COP21, the climate negotiations at this year’s COP29 in Baku managed to lay one important piece to the puzzle, by agreeing to the financial mechanism under the Paris Agreements article 6. The countries also managed to agree on tripling the financial contributions to developing countries by 2035, from 100 billion USD to 300 billion USD. Tripling the funding was a big step in the right direction but for developing countries that bear many of the greatest impacts of climate change, the need was far greater, around 1.3 trillion USD was asked for within this negotiation point.
The UNFCCCs Executive Secretary Simon Stiell highlighted that the new finance goal was an insurance policy for humanity, and the worlds governments leaves Baku with a mountain of work to do.
According to the recent agreement, all countries need to deliver updated climate plans (Nationally Determined Contributions) next year. These plans are supposed to cover all greenhouse gas emissions and all sectors, hopefully they will be ambitious enough to keep the 1.5°C warming limit within reach. During COP 29 it both UK and Brazil (the host of next COP) signaled that they will increase their ambitions in their updated climate plans. Unfortunately, the world is not on track to reduce emissions, they continue to rise.
Digitalization’s role in climate action
COP29, was a historical meeting for our sector. Digitalization was for the first time ever highlighted as a topic during the COP29 theme days . The COP presidency and ITU had together with partners prepared a Green Digital Declaration. More than 90 governments and over 1,000 members of the digital tech community, including Ericsson, endorsed the declaration.
Commenting on the launch of the COP29 Green Digital Action Declaration, COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev said, “The first-ever Digitalisation Day at COP29 marks a new chapter in climate action, embedding digital technology as a transformative tool. With the launch of the COP29 Declaration on Green Digital Action, we have a unique opportunity to combat the climate crisis while urging the digital industry to take responsibility for its environmental footprint. From artificial intelligence in climate modelling to optimising renewable energy systems, digital advancements are key to accelerating sustainable solutions on a global scale."
For us at Ericsson, we are happy digitalization is recognized as a tool to fight climate change while we also see that the industrial emissions from the sector goes down. In the latest 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report, Ericsson has published fresh numbers on the industry’s emissions and energy consumption. Even though electricity consumption rises by around 2-3 % per year, the sector’s carbon footprint is decreasing due to an increased usage of renewable energy. We know from GSMA, that the mobile operators, set a sector goal in 2019 to reach Net Zero emissions by 2050. Becoming one of the first sectors in the world to set such ambitious targets. Now 70 operators, representing more than 68% of revenues have near-term science-based targets. 53 operators have also committed to longer term Net Zero targets.
However, not only can our sector support global climate action by reducing the sectors own emissions but with digital technologies we can also help with the decarbonization of other industries.
Industrial digitalization, enabled in part by 5G and other disruptive technologies such as AI, IoT, XR, autonomous vehicles, robotics, and more, serves as the bedrock of ongoing sectoral transformation and, in doing so, can make a decisive impact in mediating the shift towards more efficient, low-carbon industrial operations, as well as more sustainable consumption.
Ericsson research papers shows potential of using digitalization as an enabler for emission reductions. IT can be up to 20% by 2030 across sectors, if deployed correctly with the right intentions.
Is the 1.5°C race lost?
Maybe you´ve heard we already has breached the 1.5°C threshold. So, does that mean the 1.5°C race set by the Paris Agreement is lost?
No not yet but we´re getting out of time.
It has been reported by EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service that in February 2024, we have crossed a yearlong 1.5°C threshold of global warming. Between March 2023 to February 2024, the temperature increase was 1.56°C warmer when compared with pre-industrial reference years .
However, that doesn’t mean that we have breached the Paris Agreement´s 1.5°C ambition. Because there is a difference between long term average and shorter intervals. In the Paris Agreement and global climate models, the warming is an average figure over a decadal time scale. The IPCC uses long-term averages for the global temperature, so on paper we will continue to see temperatures pass 1.5°C warming on individual days, months and years before the decadal average is considered to be past 1.5°C.
However, the trajectory is going into the wrong direction, fast. When the Paris Agreement was signed, the world was projected to breach the 1.5°C ambition in 2045. Today, we are close to a 1.3 degree warming according to EU climate change service, which predicts we will breach the 1.5°C threshold in 2034. This means that the acceleration of global warming has exceeded projections from 2016, and more urgent climate actions are needed to secure a livable future for all.
But there is still hope, what we do to reduce emissions will always make a difference!
If during the 21st century we have greater than 1.5°C warming and then reduce warming back to 1.5°C (an "overshoot"), the risks are greater than if the world gradually stabilizes at 1.5°C as early as possible. Maybe the second option is not possible now but maybe we can manage to do an overshoot scenario. This is important to remember as we can try and reverse the increase and maybe then minimizing some impacts.
So, if emission reduction actions can be exponentially scaled NOW as fast as possible, together with large scale carbon removal and storage solutions globally there is a slight possibility to reverse the 1.5°C overshoot effects.
Ericsson cannot solve all of this but by continuing to support our customers in reducing their emissions. As well as trying to leverage what digitalization can do in the industry transformation while continuing our own Net Zero journey in line with the 1.5°C ambition, we can at least be proud of ourselves.
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