IoT connections outlook
Broadband IoT makes up almost 60 percent of all cellular IoT connections
Key findings
By the end of 2031, the majority of cellular IoT connections are forecast to be Broadband IoT.
Total cellular IoT connections will be around 4.5 billion at the end of 2025.
5G reduced capability (RedCap) has been launched by six service providers in four different global markets.
The total number of cellular IoT connections is expected to reach 4.5 billion at the end of 2025 and is forecast to have a CAGR of around 10 percent through to 2031, approaching 8 billion by that time. The Massive IoT technologies NB-IoT and Cat-M – supporting wide-area use cases involving large numbers of low-complexity, low-cost devices with long battery lives and low-to-medium throughput – continue to be rolled out around the world. Globally, 177 service providers have deployed or commercially launched NB-IoT networks and 81 have launched Cat-M.[1] 5G RedCap has been commercially launched by six service providers in four different markets. Furthermore, 34 communication service providers in 24 countries are currently investing in RedCap technology.[2] Enhanced RedCap (eRedCap) is designed to reduce further the complexity and cost of 5G IoT devices. It offers lower peak data rates of 10 Mbps compared with RedCap. Uses of eRedCap are similar to LTE Cat-1 and LTE Cat-1 bis, offering a compromise between performance and cost. This technology is still in its infancy, but commercial deployment is expected in 2027.
IoT connections (billion)
| IoT | 2025 | 2031 | CAGR 2025-2031 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide-area IoT | 4.9 | 8.3 | 9% |
| Cellular IoT | 4.5 | 7.8 | 10% |
| Short-range IoT | 17.5 | 38.8 | 14% |
| Total | 22.3 | 47.1 | 13% |
Note: Based on rounded figures. Cellular IoT figures are also included in the figures for wide-area IoT.
The number of Broadband and Critical IoT (4G/5G) connections is expected to reach 2.6 billion by the end of 2025 and these connections are expected to continue to connect the largest share of cellular IoT devices through 2031. This segment mainly includes wide-area use cases that require higher throughput, lower latency and larger data volumes than can be supported by Massive IoT devices. LTE Cat-1 devices, which support 10 Mbps downlink and 5 Mbps uplink speeds, are increasingly being used for a variety of use cases. This rise is fueled by growing demand for new use cases and the need to shift away from legacy technologies.
2G and 3G networks continue to be shut down around the world to refarm spectrum for use with 4G and 5G. In many markets, the phasing-out of 3G networks is expected to occur more rapidly than that of 2G in the upcoming years, as sunsetting 3G networks enables the reuse of spectrum to strengthen 4G and 5G user experiences. 2G networks, with their minimal use of spectrum, will continue to be utilized for voice and legacy IoT services for a longer duration.
The growth of Massive IoT technologies is enhanced by added capabilities in the networks, enabling Massive IoT to co-exist with 4G and 5G in frequency division duplex (FDD) bands, via spectrum sharing.
By the end of 2031, a majority of cellular IoT connections are forecast to be Broadband IoT. As 5G New Radio is being introduced in old and new spectrum, throughput data rates will increase substantially for this segment. North East Asia is the leading region in terms of the number of cellular IoT connections, with a share of around 70 percent of all connections by the end of 2025.
