Regional subscriptions outlook

Sub-Saharan Africa

The telecom sector continues to drive growth in the region, fueled by a young population, wider access to affordable smartphones, and a rising demand for mobile data and digital services.

Ongoing 4G rollouts and early 5G deployments are expected to gradually phase out legacy technologies. 3G networks are anticipated to sunset sooner than for 2G, with 3G subscriptions expected to decline by 8 percent annually to reach around 90 million in 2031. 2G subscriptions are projected to fall by around 7 percent annually to a total of around 245 million. In 2031, 4G is set to account for 46 percent of all mobile subscriptions, while 5G is expected to reach 28 percent.

Smartphone subscriptions are projected to rise to 960 million in 2031, increasing the share of total mobile subscriptions from 57 percent to 73 percent, reflecting growing consumer demand and the evolving mobile ecosystem.

Service providers are increasingly diversifying their offerings, with a strong focus on fintech – particularly mobile money services – and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) to connect both consumers and enterprises. The sector’s resilience and long-term momentum will hinge on ongoing infrastructure developments and supportive regulatory environments.

Middle East and North Africa

Challenging economic and societal forces are driving rapid change in this region. However, the telecom sector continues to show resilience, providing a communication lifeline for consumers, businesses and mission-critical organizations.

Efforts to diversify economies and drive digital transformation are helping to stabilize the sector and sustain investment momentum in some countries. Although mobile subscriptions are projected to grow at a rate of just 1 percent annually to 2031, 5G subscriptions are forecast to rise with a CAGR of around 30 percent over the same period. This signals a shift in how users engage with digital services.

In 2031, 4G is anticipated to make up 49 percent of mobile subscriptions, with 5G increasing from 11 percent to 47 percent of total subscriptions. 5G FWA is gaining traction as a complement to traditional broadband offerings. Service providers are enhancing network capacity while minimizing energy consumption and their carbon footprint – modernization is key to achieving business goals and reducing energy costs to meet net-zero ambitions.

South East Asia and Oceania

5G subscriptions in the region are forecast to reach around 670 million in 2031. Most markets are focusing on coverage and incremental performance gains. While only one service provider has deployed nationwide 5G standalone (SA), many are beginning their SA journey with limited deployments focused on urban areas.

5G subscription growth is led by Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines. Australia is progressing toward 5G Advanced and autonomous networks to deliver high-performance wireless broadband and enterprise-grade connectivity. Singapore is embedding 5G into solutions like secure mobile workspaces, positioning 5G as a platform for innovation and new digital services for both business and consumers. Thailand is accelerating 5G adoption with personalized, digital value-added services that improve customer satisfaction. Vietnam stands out for the speed and scale of its 5G expansion. Indonesia’s upcoming 700 MHz and 2.6 GHz spectrum auction could accelerate 5G deployment, with all major service providers likely to participate.

5G FWA is emerging as a monetization opportunity. In Australia, FWA is maturing into a mainstream offering with predictable performance and service differentiation. In the Philippines, 5G FWA growth highlights how 5G is connecting fiber-constrained areas.

Central and Eastern Europe

Technology adoption and subscription uptake has historically been slower in this region than in Western Europe. 5G deployment varies by country, partly due to slower spectrum allocation processes. However, the region has seen several accelerated 5G deployments, driven by growing demand. Czechia has progressed with deployments of private mobile networks for manufacturing, educational campuses and mission-critical medical facilities. Croatia actively leverages 5G to support tourism and build connected smart cities, while 5G in Hungary is going beyond smartphones to the automotive sector and other use cases. New data shows a higher 5G share of subscriptions in the region than previously forecast, reaching around 80 million at the end of 2025.

4G is the dominant technology, accounting for 82 percent of all subscriptions at the end of 2025, but this share is expected to decline as subscribers migrate to 5G.

Latin America

5G is gaining momentum in Latin America after a slow start. Although the region has a relatively small base of around 110 million 5G subscriptions, the large overall subscriber base is projected to drive 5G subscriptions to 550 million by the end of 2031. 5G SA deployment has been slower than expected. However, 5G SA frontrunner deployment of 5G Advanced, network slicing and open programmable architectures is expected to fuel a broader digital transformation wave.

India, Nepal and Bhutan

5G adoption in India is continuing to grow. The availability of affordable 5G-enabled smartphones and devices, expanded 5G footprint covering almost all districts, combined with the expansion of 5G FWA services by Indian service providers is fueling data traffic growth. The expansion of 5G FWA broadband to homes and businesses, especially in rural and semi-urban areas, is helping bridge the digital divide. In a first for India, one service provider recently launched differentiated connectivity services based on network slicing for its postpaid 5G customers.

Regionally, 5G subscriptions reached 430 million at the end of 2025, accounting for 35 percent of total mobile subscriptions. Around 1.1 billion 5G subscriptions are expected by the end of 2031, reaching 81 percent subscription penetration. 4G is currently the dominant subscription type, making up 46 percent of the total.

4G subscriptions are forecast to decline from around 570 million in 2025 to around 160 million in 2031, as subscribers migrate to 5G.

North East Asia

The region had the second-highest 5G subscription penetration globally at the end of 2025, at 60 percent – with three major markets surpassing 65 percent.^[1] Adoption of differentiated connectivity is expanding, enhancing user experience and creating opportunities for service providers to monetize personalized services.

In mainland China, 5G subscriptions reached 1.2 billion at the end of 2025, with about 70 percent of mobile data traffic carried on 5G networks. Over 90 percent of smartphone shipments in 2025 were 5G-capable,^[2] and 5G Advanced is available nationwide. Two million 5G sites have been upgraded to support reduced capability (RedCap), and high-order carrier aggregation is activated in more than 300 cities.^[3]

In Japan, progress in 5G SA is improving consumer experiences, and offerings leveraging differentiated connectivity are emerging. Service providers are increasing investments in AI to support future monetization.

South Korea continues to offer high average 5G throughput while expanding coverage, including in rural areas, through network sharing. Service providers remain focused on improving user experience and preparing networks for the AI era, alongside efforts to monetize 5G services.

In Hong Kong, service providers report that 5G ARPU outperforms 4G, contributing positively to financial performance.

In Taiwan, service providers are testing differentiated connectivity offerings in segments such as live entertainment, while FWA services continue to gain traction as a new revenue opportunity. Commercial 5G SA services are expected within one to two years.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

The GCC has a small mobile subscriber base, yet it is notable for its high penetration, levels of urbanization and consumer spending power.

Service providers are transitioning from traditional telcos to digital service providers. This is enabled by extensive 5G deployment and the adoption of technologies such as AI, cloud computing and edge solutions. Network slicing is expected to be key for delivering customized services.

In 2031, mobile subscriptions are expected to reach 95 million. Legacy network subscriptions will decline as users migrate to next-generation connectivity. By the end of 2031, 5G is expected to represent 88 percent of all mobile subscriptions, totaling 84 million.

FWA adoption is driven by demand for high-speed alternatives to fixed broadband, as well as national initiatives aimed at reaching underserved areas and supporting smart-city ambitions.

North America

5G subscriptions reached around 370 million at the end of 2025, accounting for 79 percent of all mobile subscriptions at that time and are expected to reach around 460 million in 2031. Leading service providers anticipate continued growth for FWA and are introducing differentiated connectivity to offer tailored experiences. Extensive mid-band 5G network coverage is the foundation for new consumers, enterprises and government innovations across the broader tech ecosystem. The upcoming major international soccer tournament is driving updates to networks in venues and across host cities to deliver the digital portion of the destination experiences millions of fans expect.

Western Europe

5G subscription growth is strong in the region, reaching around 300 million in 2025, which equals a penetration of 54 percent. The penetration varies between countries, where markets that launched 5G early, such as the UK and Finland, have already achieved high penetration relative to other markets. 5G mid-band and SA are gaining traction, with leading service providers launching new offerings based on differentiated connectivity in areas such as payment terminals, live broadcasting and photojournalism. In Spain, a major service provider launched the first commercial service in the country based on differentiated connectivity in Q1 2026, designed to guarantee enhanced connectivity during periods of extreme demand, such as concerts, major public celebrations, or cultural events with large numbers of users in attendance.

Going forward, 4G is expected to decline in favor of 5G. 5G subscriptions are anticipated to reach around 540 million at the end of 2031, representing 95 percent penetration at that time.