Regional subscriptions outlook

Sub-Saharan Africa

The telecoms sector continues to drive growth in the region, fueled by a young population, wider access to affordable smartphones, and a rising demand for mobile data and digital services.

The ongoing rollout of 4G and the early stages of 5G deployment are expected to gradually phase out legacy technologies. Sunsetting of 3G networks is anticipated to happen sooner than for 2G networks, with 3G subscriptions expected to decline by 8 percent annually over the forecast period, to a total of 89 million in 2031. 2G subscriptions are projected to fall by 7 percent annually to a total of 243 million. In 2031, 4G is set to account for 44 percent of all mobile subscriptions, while 5G is expected to grow significantly to around 400 million subscriptions.

Smartphone subscriptions are projected to rise to 960 million in 2031. Notably, around 42 percent of these are expected to be 5G subscriptions, reflecting the growing consumer demand and evolving mobile ecosystem.

Service providers are increasingly diversifying their offerings, with a strong focus on fintech – particularly mobile money services – and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), aimed at boosting connectivity for both consumers and enterprises. The sector’s resilience and long-term momentum will hinge on ongoing infrastructure developments and supportive regulatory environments.

Middle East and North Africa

The telecom sector across the region continues to show resilience in the face of ongoing global economic uncertainty and geopolitical complexities.

Regional efforts to diversify economies and drive digital transformation are helping to stabilize the sector and sustain investment momentum. Mobile subscriptions are projected to grow at an annual rate of 1 percent up to 2031, reaching a total of 780 million. Notably, 5G subscriptions are forecast to rise with a CAGR of around 30 percent over the same period, signaling a shift in how users engage with digital services.

In 2031, 4G is anticipated to make up 44 percent of mobile subscriptions, while 5G is set to dominate with 53 percent of the total subscriptions. 5G FWA is also gaining traction as a key enabler of next-generation connectivity, complementing traditional broadband offerings. Service providers are continuously working to enhance network capacity while minimizing energy consumption and their carbon footprint – modernization is key to achieving business goals and reducing energy costs to meet net-zero ambitions.

South East Asia and Oceania

5G subscriptions in the region are forecast to reach around 680 million in 2031. 5G is evolving beyond coverage to prioritize performance, differentiated connectivity and high-value use cases. Service providers across the region have launched experience-led differentiated connectivity offerings, such as boost packs and network slices, for consumers and enterprises.

Singapore offers tiered 5G experiences for consumers and enterprises, delivering differentiated connectivity based on user needs for speed, priority and security. Meanwhile, Australia is rolling out service level agreement-backed 5G for mission-critical enterprise workloads. In Malaysia, network slicing capabilities are now available for 5G consumers. 5G has become a significant driver of data consumption and increased ARPU in Thailand, with service providers reporting 10–15 percent ARPU uplift among 5G users. Vietnam’s government is driving accelerated 5G deployment of 90 percent population coverage in 2025, through a mix of targeted subsidies for service providers and spectrum reforms.

Central and Eastern Europe

Technology adoption and subscription uptake has historically been slower here than in Western Europe. 5G deployment varies by country, partly due to slower spectrum allocation processes. However, the region has seen several accelerated 5G deployments, driven by growing demand. For example, Croatia leverages 5G for tourism and smart cities, while 5G in Hungary is going beyond smartphones to the automotive sector and other use cases. Regionally, 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 45 million during 2025. 

4G is currently the dominant technology and is expected to account for 88 percent of all subscriptions at the end of 2025. It is estimated that this share will decline after a peak in 2025, as subscribers migrate to 5G.

Latin America

5G is gaining momentum in Latin America after a slow start. Although the region currently has a small base with 106 million 5G subscriptions, the large overall subscriber base is projected to enable Latin American 5G subscriptions to reach 553 million by the end of 2031. Throughout this period of growth in number of 5G subscriptions, the mobile infrastructure is anticipated to mature significantly with the adoption of 5G standalone (SA) architecture, 5G Advanced technologies, network slicing and open programmable architectures. This will fuel digital transformation in the region.

India, Nepal and Bhutan

5G adoption in India is growing rapidly. The expansion of 5G networks, availability of affordable 5G FWA customer premises equipment (CPE) and high data consumption from FWA users is fueling the data traffic growth in India. 5G FWA allows for rapid deployment of broadband services to homes and businesses, especially in rural and semi-urban areas where fiber optic cable installation is slow and expensive, and is helping to bridge the digital divide.

Regionally, 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 394 million at the end of 2025, accounting for 32 percent of total mobile subscriptions. More than 1 billion 5G subscriptions are expected by the end of 2031, reaching 79 percent subscription penetration. 4G is currently the dominant subscription type, making up 49 percent of total mobile subscriptions. 4G subscriptions are forecast to decline from around 600 million in 2025 to around 190 million in 2031, as subscribers migrate to 5G.

North East Asia

The region has the second-highest 5G subscription penetration globally, and is expected to reach 61 percent at the end of 2025. Adoption of differentiated connectivity is expanding across the region, enhancing user experience and creating opportunities for service providers to monetize personalized services.

In mainland China, 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 1.2 billion at the end of 2025, and over 90 percent of smartphone shipments are anticipated to be 5G-capable.^[1] 5G Advanced is becoming more widely available, including functionalities such as support for reduced capability (RedCap) and high-order carrier aggregation.

In Japan, progress in 5G SA is improving consumer experiences, and service offerings that leverage differentiated connectivity are emerging. Service providers are also increasing investments in areas such as AI, to support future monetization strategies.

South Korea continues to offer high average 5G throughput while expanding coverage, including in rural areas, through network sharing. Service providers remain focused on improving user experience and preparing networks for increased importance in the AI era, alongside efforts to monetize 5G services.

In Hong Kong, service providers report a substantially increased ARPU from 5G compared to 4G, contributing positively to financial performance.

In Taiwan, service providers have begun testing differentiated connectivity offerings in specific segments, such as live entertainment, with commercial 5G SA services expected to launch within the next one to two years.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)

The region, while small in terms of subscribers, is notable for its high penetration, high levels of urbanization and robust consumer spending power.

Service providers are transitioning from traditional telcos to digital service providers. This is enabled by extensive 5G deployment and the adoption of technologies such as AI, cloud computing and edge solutions. Network slicing, supported by programmable networks and open APIs, is expected to be a cornerstone in delivering customized and performance-sensitive services.

In 2031, mobile subscriptions are expected to reach 97 million. Subscriptions for legacy network generations will decline sharply as users migrate to next-generation connectivity. By the end of 2031, 5G subscriptions are expected to comprise 92 percent of all mobile subscriptions, totaling 89 million.

FWA adoption is driven by demand for high-speed alternatives to fixed broadband and national initiatives aimed at reaching underserved areas and supporting smart-city ambitions.

North America

5G subscriptions are expected to reach 359 million at the end of 2025, accounting for 79 percent of all mobile subscriptions at that time, and to further reach around 450 million in 2031. Leading service providers anticipate continued growth for FWA and are introducing differentiated connectivity to offer tailored experiences. Extensive mid-band 5G network coverage is the foundation for new consumers, enterprises and government innovations across the broader tech ecosystem. The innovations are created at the intersection of AI, cloud and mobile.

Western Europe

5G subscription growth is strong in the region, and is expected to rise from 227 million at the end of 2024 to 307 million in 2025, equaling a penetration of 55 percent. 5G subscription penetration varies between countries, where markets that launched 5G early, such as the UK and Finland, have already achieved high penetration relative to other markets. Going forward, 4G is expected to decline in favor of 5G. 5G subscriptions are anticipated to reach around 540 million at the end of 2031, representing 95 percent penetration at that time, which is in line with other leading 5G markets. 5G mid-band and SA are gaining traction in the region, with leading service providers launching new offerings based on differentiated connectivity in areas such as payment terminals, live broadcasting and photojournalism.